Ingxelo entsha yothungelwano lomgaqo-nkqubo wamandla ahlaziyekayo we-REN21 ekhutshwe kule veki ifumanisa ukuba uninzi lweengcali zehlabathi kumandla ziqinisekile ukuba umhlaba unokutshintshela kwikamva lamandla ahlaziyekayo nge-100% phakathi kule nkulungwane.
Nangona kunjalo, ukuzithemba ekunokwenzeka kolu tshintsho kuyaguquguquka ukusuka kwingingqi ukuya kwingingqi, kwaye kukho inkolelo esondeleyo-jikelele yokuba amacandelo afana nezothutho anento yokwenza ukuba ikamva lawo licoceke nge-100%.
Ingxelo, enesihloko esithi REN21 Renewables Global Futures, ibeke izihloko zengxoxo ezili-12 kwiingcali zamandla ezaziwayo ezili-114 ezithathwe kuzo zone iikona zehlabathi. Injongo yayikukuvuselela nokuvusa iingxoxo malunga nemingeni engundoqo ejongene namandla ahlaziyekayo, kwaye yayinonophele ukubandakanya abantu abathandabuzayo bamandla ahlaziyekayo njengenxalenye yabo baphandwayo.
Akukho ziqikelelo okanye uqikelelo lwenziwayo; kunokuba, iimpendulo zeengcali kunye nezimvo zahlanganiswa ukuze zenze umfanekiso ohambelanayo apho abantu bakholelwa ukuba ikamva lamandla lisingise khona. Eyona mpendulo iphawuleka kakhulu yayifunyenwe kuMbuzo 1: "100% enokuphinda ihlaziywe - sisiphumo esinengqiqo sesiVumelwano saseParis?" Kule nto, ngaphezu kwe-70% yabaphenduli bakholelwa ukuba ihlabathi lingaba ne-100% amandla avuselelekayo ngo-2050, kunye neengcali zaseYurophu nase-Australia zixhasa kakhulu lo mbono.
Ngokubanzi bekukho "imvumelwano eyothusayo" yokuba izinto ezihlaziyiweyo ziya kulawula icandelo lamandla, kunye neengcali eziqaphela ukuba nequmrhu elikhulu lamazwe ngamazwe ngoku likhetha ukukhetha iimveliso zamandla ahlaziyekayo nokuba zivela kwizinto ezisetyenziswayo ngotyalo-mali oluthe ngqo.
Phantse i-70% yeengcali ezidliwano-ndlebe zaziqinisekile ukuba iindleko zokuhlaziywa ziya kuqhubeka ziwa, kwaye ziya kuthoba ngokulula iindleko zazo zonke iifutha ze-fossil ngo-2027. Ngokulinganayo, uninzi luqinisekile ukuba ukukhula kwe-GDP kunokudityaniswa ekunyuseni kokusetyenziswa kwamandla, kunye namazwe. ezahlukeneyo njengoko iDenmark neTshayina zibalule njengemizekelo yamazwe akwazile ukunciphisa ukusetyenziswa kwamandla kodwa asaxhamla kuhlumo loqoqosho.
Imingeni engundoqo ichongiwe
Ithemba ngekamva elicocekileyo phakathi kwezo ngcaphephe lili-114 lathotywa kunikezelo lwesiqhelo lokuzibamba, ngakumbi phakathi kwamazwi athile eJapan, e-US nase-Afrika apho amathandabuzo malunga nokukwazi kwale mimandla ukusebenza ngokupheleleyo kwi-100% yamandla avuselelekayo ayegquba. Ngokukodwa, imidla yoshishino lwamandla aqhelekileyo yachazwa njengemiqobo enzima kunye nemiqobo ekufumaneni amandla acocekileyo ngokubanzi.
Ngokuphathelele kwezothutho, “utshintsho lwemodyuli” luyafuneka ukuze kuguqulwe ngokupheleleyo umkhondo wamandla acocekileyo welo candelo, ifumene ingxelo. Ukutshintshwa kweenjini zokutsha ngokuqhutywa kombane akuyi kwanela ekuguquleni icandelo, uninzi lweengcali zikholelwa ukuba, ngelixa ulwamkelo olubanzi lwezothutho ezisekwe kumzila kaloliwe luya kuba nempembelelo ebanzi. Noko ke, bambalwa abakholelwa ukuba oku kunokwenzeka.
Kwaye njengakuqala, iingcali ezininzi bezigxeka oorhulumente abasileleyo ukuzisa isiqinisekiso somgaqo-nkqubo wexesha elide wotyalo-mali olunokuhlaziywa - ukusilela kobunkokeli okubonwa kude nalapha e-UK nase-US, ukuya kwi-Afrika engezantsi kweSahara kunye noMzantsi Melika.
"Le ngxelo inika uluhlu olubanzi lwezimvo zeengcali, kwaye yenzelwe ukuvuselela iingxoxo kunye neengxoxo malunga namathuba kunye nemingeni yokufikelela kwi-100% yekamva lamandla ahlaziyekayo phakathi kwinkulungwane," utshilo unobhala olawulayo weREN21 uChristine Lins. “Iingcinga ezinqwenelekayo aziyi kusifikisa apho; kuphela ngokuyiqonda ngokupheleleyo imingeni kunye nokubandakanyeka kwingxoxo-mpikiswano enolwazi malunga nendlela yokuyoyisa, apho oorhulumente banokuthatha imigaqo-nkqubo efanelekileyo kunye nenkuthazo yemali ukukhawulezisa isantya sokuthunyelwa.
Usihlalo we-REN21 u-Arthouros Zervos wongeze ukuba bambalwa abaza kukholelwa emva kwi-2004 (xa i-REN21 yasekwa) ukuba ngo-2016 amandla ahlaziyekayo aya kuba ne-86% yazo zonke ii-EU ezifakelwayo zofakelo lwamandla, okanye ukuba i-China iya kuba lelona gunya linamandla acocekileyo emhlabeni. "Iifowuni ke ze-100% zamandla avuselelekayo azizange zithathwe ngokungathí sina," watsho uZervos. "Namhlanje, iingcali ezikhokelayo zamandla kwihlabathi zibandakanyeka kwiingxoxo ezinengqondo malunga nokuba nokwenzeka kwayo, kwaye ngeliphi ixesha."
Iziphumo ezongezelelweyo
'Iingxoxo-mpikiswano ezili-12' zale ngxelo zichukumise uluhlu lwezihloko, ingakumbi ibuza malunga ne-100% yekamva lamandla ahlaziyekayo, kodwa kwakhona oku kulandelayo: ingaba imfuno yamandla ehlabathi kunye nokusebenza kakuhle kwamandla kungalungelelaniswa njani ngcono; ingaba 'ophumeleleyo uthatha konke' xa kuziwa kumbane ohlaziyekayo; ukufudumeza kombane kuya kuthatha indawo yobushushu; ukuba izithuthi zombane ziya kubanga isabelo semarike; kukugcina umntu okhuphisana naye okanye umxhasi wegridi yamandla; amathuba ezixeko ezikhulu, kunye nokukwazi ukuhlaziya amandla okuphucula ufikelelo lwamandla kubo bonke.
Iingcali zokuvota eziyi-114 zatsalwa kwihlabathi liphela, kwaye ingxelo ye-REN21 yahlulahlula iimpendulo zabo zomndilili ngokwengingqi. Le yindlela iingcali zommandla ngamnye eziphendule ngayo:
●E-Afrika, eyona mvumelwano icacileyo yayikukuba ingxoxo yokufikelela kumandla isagquma i-100% yengxoxo yamandla ahlaziyekayo.
●E-Australia nase-Oceania eyona nto ibalulekileyo yokuthathwa kukuba kukho ulindelo oluphezulu lwe-100% ehlaziyiweyo.
●Iingcali zaseTshayina zikholelwa ukuba eminye imimandla yaseTshayina inokufikelela kwi-100% ehlaziyiweyo, kodwa ikholelwa ukuba le yinjongo yamabhongo ehlabathi jikelele.
● Eyona nkxalabo yeYurophu kukuqinisekisa ngenkxaso eyomeleleyo ye-100% yezinto ezihlaziyiweyo ukulwa nokutshintsha kwemozulu.
●E-Indiya, i-100% yengxoxo ehlaziyiweyo isaqhubeka, kunye nesiqingatha sabo bavotelwe bakholelwa ukuba ekujoliswe kuko akunakwenzeka ngo-2050.
● Kummandla weLatam, ingxoxo malunga ne-100% ehlaziyiweyo ayikaqalisi, kunye nemibandela enzima kakhulu ngoku etafileni.
● Imiqobo yaseJapan ithoba ulindelo malunga nokuba nokwenzeka kohlaziyo lwe-100%, iingcali zelizwe zatsho.
● E-US kukho ukuthandabuza okumandla malunga ne-100% ehlaziyiweyo kunye neengcali ezimbini kuphela ezisibhozo eziqinisekileyo ukuba zingenzeka.
Ixesha lokuposa: Jun-03-2019